泛长江三角洲区域经济空间差异分析——基于经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数

REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITIES IN PAN-YANGTZE RIVER DELTA——BASED ON EBI AND EBIi

忽视了地理位置因素的传统统计分析方法无法真正反映经济要素空间差异的动态演变过程,经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数有效地避免了方差不稳定性,为泛长江三角洲区域经济空间差异的定量分析提供了有力支撑。借助经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数,对1999~2008年泛长江三角洲区域经济发展的总体空间差异、集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移路径以及局部空间差异进行探索性分析。研究结果表明：总体上,经济发展在泛长江三角洲区域具有较好的空间结构性和空间关联性,全局空间自相关指数呈现出波动性增大趋势;经济集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移路径存在一定的规律性,表现为传统长江三角洲地区始终作为高值集聚中心,安徽始终作为低值集聚中心,南昌始终作为高值孤立点,泰州始终作为低值孤立点;从局部来看,区域经济发展表现出十分明显的局部空间差异,表现为传统长江三角洲地区的高值指向性与新扩容省份的低值指向性。

The purpose of the study is to analyze the spatial variation of economy in Pan-Yangtze River Delta.The economic growth in each region not only depends on its own characteristics,but also on the neighborhood regions which it belongs to.Unfortunately,the traditional approaches suppose that each region is independent from others,so they just evaluate the regional disparity variations of ＂isolated＂ regions and cannot tell the dynamics of interrelated regions.Methods of ESDA were employed,which could incorporate spatial effects into the analysis of regional disparities,identify global and local disparities at the regional scale and visualize the spatial distribution and patterns through Moran scatter plots or LISA maps.In order to avoid the variation instability of the variable of per capita GDP,methods of spatial autocorrelation indicators adjusted by Empirical Bayes was employed.This paper investigated the spatial dynamics of regional disparities at the municipal level in Pan-Yangtze River Delta by analyzing per capita GDP data,1999~2008.The results indicated that the economy development showed obvious spatial cluster pattern in Pan-Yangtze River Delta.The value of EBI showed a trend of increased volatility;the spatial transfer of clusters and outliers showed definite rules;the economy development showed obvious local spatial disparity pattern.The study indicated the feature of the Yangtze River Delta region with high-value and the new expansion provinces with low-value.