城市化对长江下游沿江城市气温影响的对比研究——以安庆、芜湖、南京为例

COMPARISON ABOUT IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON URBAN TEMPERATURE IN THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE YANGTZE RIVER——A CASE STUDY OF ANQING,WUHU AND NANJING

利用线性趋势法与滑动平均法对比分析了安庆、芜湖及南京的年平均气温、年平均最高气温及年平均最低气温所表征的热岛效应强度变化趋势,基于主成分分析建立起热岛强度与城市发展指数的关系模型。结果表明:(1)城市规模的大小与年平均气温及年平均最低气温所表征的热岛强度变率的大小成反比关系,而中等城市的年平均最高气温所表征的热岛强度变率最大,小城市次之,大城市最小。(2)热岛强度与城市发展指数之间均以三次回归模型的拟合效果最好,中等城市的热岛强度与城市发展指数的拟合曲线符合库兹涅茨曲线特征,而小城市和大城市则并不完全符合。(3)经济水平、城市人口密度及能源消耗是安庆市热岛效应的主要影响因子;城镇人口比重、经济水平及城市生态条件是芜湖市热岛效应的主要影响因子;城市人口、经济水平、土地利用状况、能源消耗及城市的生态条件均是南京热岛效应的主要影响因子。

Through linear trend and moving average method,the variation tendencies of heat island intensity（HII） represented by different temperature types were obtained in Anqing,Wuhu and Nanjing.Then a comparison analysis was made among them.On the basis of principal component analysis,regression models between HII and urbanization index were constructed.The result showed that there was negative correlation between urban scale and the variation velocity of HII represented by annual mean temperature and min-mean temperature.However,the relationship between urban scale and the variation velocity of HII represented by annual max-mean temperature did not conform to this rule.Medium-scale city possessed maximum variation velocity of HII,while maximum-scale city possessed minimum variation velocity.Cubic regression model all accorded with the relationship models between HII and urbanization index at utmost.Meanwhile,only the relationship model in medium-scale city owned characteristics of Kuznets curve.The main influence factors of heat island for different cities had obvious discrepancies,with economical level,population density and energy consumption for Anqing,urban population proportion,economic level and ecological condition for Wuhu,land use condition and above-mentioned factors for Nanjing.