经济增长的需求启动、需求约束及再启动

Economic Growth Stimulated and Constrained by Demand and Re-stimulated

工业化进程中,经济增长将由供给推动及约束转变为需求启动及约束成为学术界一种共识。理论分析和实证分析表明,工业化进程中经济增长需求启动的一般规律是,消费需求启动增长力度由强变弱再变强,投资需求启动力度由弱变强再变弱,净出口需求是国内需求的有益补充。不同需求启动增长条件不具备或时机选择不当及需求结构失衡均会使经济增长受到明显的需求约束。改革开放以来,中国经济增长的需求启动政策较好地利用了经济增长的需求启动规律,获得了较好的增长绩效。现实条件下,对于即将进入工业化后期的中国而言,摆脱经济增长需求约束的关键是通过需求结构的战略性调整进行经济增长的需求再启动,以实现中国经济的持续稳定增长。

There was a common view in the academic community that economic growth should be stimulated and constrained from by supply to by demand with the process of industrialization. Theoretical analysis and empirical analysis indicate that there is a common law of economic growth stimulated by demand with the process of industrialization. Economic growth stimulated by consumer demand goes from strength to weakness then to strength, and stimulated by investment demand goes from weakness to strength then to weakness. Net export demand is beneficial accomplishment to domestic demand. Economic growth should be constrained by demand with unsatisfied conditions, inappropriate timing, and unbalanced demand structure. The Chinese demand policy which had made good use of the law has gotten effectiveness growth since the implementation of reform and open policy. Under realistic conditions, Chinese must take strategic adjustment to demand structure to re -stimulate demand to realize the economy with persistent and stable growth.