1950-2008年汉中市气侯变暖及其经济适应

An Analysis of Global Warming and Economic Adaptation in Hanzhong during 1950-2008

利用汉中市1950-2008年的气温、降水、经济指标数据,分析了汉中市旱涝灾害对全球气候变暖的响应,并运用集对分析法分析了旱涝灾害对汉中市经济发展状况的影响。结果表明:全市平均气温为增温趋势,以90年代初为界将汉中市59年的气候分为冷、暖两个阶段,前为冷期,后为暖期;干旱气象灾害在气候变化影响下有愈演愈烈之势,对汉中市造成的经济损失也越来越大,其经济发展联系度在5年中下降了0.5,表现为经济不适应。

In this paper, the response of climate change to global warming and the impacts of meteorological disasters on the social and economic development in Hanzhong are analyzed based on the data of temperature, precipitation, and economy data of the past 59 years. The states of economic development is evaluated by set pair analysis method. The results reveal that the average temperature of the city has an increasing trend. Divided by the time of the early 1990s, the 59 years of climate of Hanzhong might be identified into 2 periods, a cold period and a warm period. The arid climatic disaster becomes severer, and its severe effects on economic development are getting more and more serious in Hanzhong. The connection coefficient of economic development falls 0.5 in Hanzhong in the past 5 years, indicating that the economy is not adaptable.