干旱区绿洲城市化发展与耕地保护协同性分析——以张掖市甘州区为例

Research on the Coordination between Urbanization and Cultivated Land Change in an Oasis City of Ganzhou District

城市化水平是衡量一个国家经济发达程度,特别是工业化水平高低的一个重要标志,而耕地非农化是城市化过程中的一种必然现象,耕地数量变化体现一定的社会经济发展规律。因此,研究耕地资源与城市化的关系具有一定的现实意义,有助于为当地政府城市规划和进一步发展提供参考依据。处在脆弱敏感的自然环境下,干旱区绿洲城市发展与耕地资源保护存在着显著矛盾。本文基于1996-2008年的统计数据,利用回归分析法和协调度分析法分析了甘州区城市化水平与耕地资源变化的相关性及协调性。结果表明:1996-2002年耕地资源与城市化水平呈现出一定相互促进的正相关关系;2003年耕地资源变化略有波动,耕地面积有所减少。2004-2008年耕地资源变化逐渐趋于平稳,而在此过程中城市化水平一直处于稳步上升状态。协同度除2004年呈不协调状态,其他年份呈基本协调或较协调趋势。

The level of urbanization is an important sign that can measure a country＇s economic development and the level of industrialization. Farmland conversion in the process of urbanization is an inevitable phenomenon. The changes of cultivated land can reflect some socio-economic development laws. Studying the relation-ship between cultivated land resources and urbanization has practical significance, and it can also help local governments to make plans for further development. In the fragile and sensitive oasis environment, significant conflict exists between oasis urban development and land resource protection. The authors analysed the correlation and coordinated index between urbanization and the changes of cultivated land resource in Ganzhou District from 1996 to 2008 based on the statistical data and methods of regression analysis and coordination analysis. Cultivated land resources and the level of urbanization had a positive correlation in the period 1996-2002.The changes of cultivated land resources had some slight fluctuations in the year of 2003 and the arable land was reduced. The changes of cultivated land resources gradually became smooth in the period 2004-2008, and the change of urbanization was always smooth. The overall trend is ＂basically coordinated or reconciled＂ with an exception of ＂not coordinated＂ in 2004.