基于灰色理论的陕西农业机械总动力预测

Prediction of Agricultural Machinery Total Power of Shaanxi Based on Grey Theory

农业机械总动力预测是农业机械化科学管理的重要内容。为此,运用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,对1998-2008年陕西省农业机械总动力进行了相关检验,模拟了陕西省农机总动力发展情况,相对误差均小于3%,平均误差为1.01%,模型可用于农机总动力预测。预测结果表明:2011-2015年陕西农业机械总动力分别为19 570,21 687,2 3932,26 315,28 843kW,呈直线上升趋势,年平均递增率为9.48%。

Prediction of agricultural machinery total power is the main content of scientific management of agricultural mechanization.This paper uses GM（1,1） which belongs to grey system theory to check the agricultural machinery total power of Shaanxi province from 1998 to 2008,and imitates the agricultural machinery total power development of Shaanxi Province,and the result shows the relative error is under 3%,mean error is 1.01%.In conclusion,from small error,we can know this model can be used to predict the agricultural machinery total power.The predicting outcome shows the agricultural machinery total power of Shaanxi will grow a steep rising trend.