长江中下游地区耕地复种指数变化特征与潜力分析

Variation characteristics and developmental potentials on multiple cropping index of arable land in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

基于1979—2007年统计资料,对长江中下游六省一市耕地面积、农作物总播种面积、粮食播种面积和耕地复种指数的变化特征进行了分析,并采用最大复种指数与热量、水资源之间的定量化关系模型计算分析了该地区的复种指数理论潜力和可挖掘潜力。结果表明:2007年与1979年相比长江中下游地区耕地面积、农作物总播种面积、粮食播种面积和总产量减少,耕地复种指数下降。以研究区2007年的耕地复种指数为参照,该区耕地复种指数理论可挖掘潜力为108.37%,其中最大的是浙江为160.5%,其次是湖北、江西、上海,分别为130.7%,113.0%,110.6%,其余各地也较大。复种指数的下降,严重影响了粮食生产。如何挖掘本区耕地复种指数潜力,提高农业机械化水平,进行土地制度创新等措施值得借鉴。

Based on the statistical data from 1979 to 2007,this paper analyzed the changes of the total area of arable land,crops,grain and the multiple cropping index（MCI） in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,then calculated the theoretical potential of MCI in each province（municipality） in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River by using the model of the quantitative relationship between the maximum of MCI and the heat and water resources.The results showed that the arable land area,grain sown area and yield,the total sown area of crops and MCI decreased in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River from 1997 to 2007.By reference to the MCI in 2007,the potential of MCI in the area was 108.37%,Zhejiang was the biggest province in this area whose potential of MCI was 160.5%,followed by Hubei（130.7%）,Jiangxi（113.0%） and Shanghai（110.6%）,and the potential of MCI of other provinces in this place was big too.The decline of MCI made serious influences on food production.The measures of tapping the potential of multiple cropping indexes in this area,improving the level of agricultural mechanization and making innovations to the land system were worth to be used as reference.