湖南省耕地资源动态变化驱动力分析

Study on Driving Dynamic Change Forces of Cultivated Land in Hunan Province

以湖南省为例,动态分析耕地资源数量变化,运用因子分析和主成分分析法构建湖南省耕地资源变化驱动因子体系,对影响区域耕地资源数量动态变化的自然、人口、社会经济发展水平、农业发展水平和非农建设用地等进行定量分析,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。基于此,运用多元线性回归分析,构建了湖南省1997-2007年耕地变化回归模型,分析了各驱动影响因子对耕地资源数量变化的作用。结果表明,湖南省耕地变化的驱动因子分别为经济发展因子、资金投入因子、科技进步和政策驱动因子等4大类,且长期影响着湖南省耕地面积变化,并在未来还将继续影响。其中,前3类因子使耕地面积逐年递减,而政策因子则对湖南省耕地面积变化起着双层作用。

In the dynamic analysis of changes in cultivated land area in Hunan Province,based on the use of correlation analysis and principal component analysis,to build out the impact of changes in driving factors of cultivated land in Hunan Province,Employing correlation analysis and factor analysis,it quantitatively analyzes five kinds of driving forces,such as natural conditions,population status,the level of social and economic development,the level of agricultural science and technology development,and non-agricultural use of basic farmland.These driving forces influence the dynamic change of the cultivated land of Hunan province,on this basis,established the regression model of cultivated land change between 1997 and 2007,by using multiple regression analysis,and then,the fitted values and actual values were in the degree of well fitted.This study analyzed the effects of each factor on the impact of changes in cultivated land,the suggestion in the protection of cultivated land in Hunan Province has a very good reference value.