关税的产业结构调整效应实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Tariffs on Industrial Structure Adjustment Effect

文章以1978～2009年数据为基础构建VAR模型,运用协整检验分析方法和脉冲响应分析方法对中国关税的产业结构调整效果进行了实证分析,得出结论:关税与第一、第二和第三产业之间存在长期均衡关系;关税政策短期内对第一产业有显著的正向影响,对第二产业有显著的负向影响,对第三产业有不确定且微弱的影响。

This paper constructs VAR model based on the data from 1978to2009,using cointegration test analysis method and the impulse response analysis method,and analyses effect of tariff on industrial structure adjustment,makes a conclusion： there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tariffs and first,second and third industry;in short,tariff policy on the first industry are significant positive impact,and on the second industry has significant negative impacts,and on the third industry has uncertain and weak effect.