经济结构、技术进步、国际贸易与环境污染——基于中国工业行业数据的分析

Economic Structure,Technological Progress,International Trade and Environmental Pollution——Based on Chinese Industrial Data Analysis

在将环境污染的影响分解为经济结构效应、生产技术进步效应、污染治理技术进步效应以及它们之间共同作用效应的基础上,分析了进出口规模、进出口结构变化对中国环境污染的影响,并得出以下结论:无论是从工业总体还是从进出口部门来看,技术进步(包括生产技术进步和污染治理技术进步)对减少工业污染排放的效果最大;结构变化及其与技术进步的共同作用效果在工业总体和进出口部门中的作用效果存在差异;出口导致的污染排放占了各种工业污染排放的25%以上,出口污染排放量高于进口污染排放减少量,但"污染避风港"的假说在中国并不成立。

This paper sees the impact of environmental pollution as the scale effect,economic structure effect,production technology effect,abatement technology effect and cooperation effect,and analyzes the effect of the export structure and import structure change to environmental pollution.The results indicate that： First,technological progress plalys the major role in reducing the emissions of industrial pollution;Secondly,structural change and technology progress have differences in effect between the general aspects of the national industry and import and export sector;Finally,the pollution emissions caused by merchandise exports accounted for China＇s industrial all pollution emissions more than 25%.The potential contamination emissions caused by merchandise exports are less than the export,but the ＂Pollution Haven＂ hypothesis does not hold in China.