惠州GDP三年超中山的模型预测及可行性分析

The Model Forecast and Feasibility Analysis about Huizhou Exceeding Zhognshan in GDP

构建主成分回归模型预测惠州和中山2009-2011年GDP。当解释变量仅为常规变量时,预测结果是惠州在2011年赶不上中山;但当加入大项目带动和深惠莞一体化的机遇变量时,预测得出惠州在2011年GDP将超过中山大约60亿元。同时,对预测模型的合理性和结论的可行性作了分析。

A principal componant regression model is built to forecast the GDP of Huizhou and Zhongshan from 2009 to 2011.We find that Huizhou＇s GDP couldn＇t catch up Zhongshan＇s if only use the routine variabale explained;but when the oportunity variabale is entered,Huizhou＇s GDP will exceed Zhongshan＇s about 60 hunred million yuan.Then a feasibale and rational analysis is done to the model and forecast.