一次寒潮大风沙尘天气预报得失技术分析

Technical Analysis of Right and Wrong Prediction in One Windy and Dusty Cold Wave Process

从技术角度较全面分析了2010年3月19~20日出现在宁夏固原市一次无降水寒潮大风沙尘天气过程的预报得失情况。结果表明,该寒潮大风沙尘天气是北方小冷槽高速东移南压发展、地面冷锋和冷高压高速移动过境所致,数值预报对500 hPa槽线和地面强气压梯度锋区预报准确,对降温幅度预报基本准确;WRF地面大风区预报较准确。但各类数值预报在温度、湿度、风等要素预报上的误差影响预报判断。特殊的地形温度差异、潮前高温以及锋后干照天气对精确预报有很大影响。

The right and wrong prediction of one windy and dusty cold wave which occurred on March 19,2010 was analyzed from technology angle.This process was produced by High-speed low-pressure trough moving southeast,surface cold front and fast-moving cold high pressure.The numerical prediction of low-pressure trough and strong surface pressure gradient zone were accurate.The prediction of temperature drop was less accurate.Strong surface wind zone was accurately forecasted by WRF model.However,there were errors of various numerical predictions on some elements such as temperature,humidity and wind affected the judgments of forecasters.Some factors such as special terrain,high temperature before cold wave,dry and sunny weather affected the prediction accuracy.