劳动就业及其空间效应——对中国省级面板数据的空间计量经济分析

Labor Employment and Its Spatial Effects:Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis of Interprovincial Data of China

中国的省际劳动就业存在显著的空间溢出效应和空间依赖性,而且邻近省域就业的溢出效应和空间依赖性对本省具有正向影响,但各地区经济结构的不断趋同使得空间溢出效应远小于空间依赖性。在影响省域劳动就业的因素中,技术进步、市场化水平和政府财政支出有显著影响,工资水平、工业化和人均可支配收入的影响并不是很显著,人口城镇化水平由于中国经济、社会发展中的特殊性对就业的影响较小。

Based on the analysis of spatial correlation and spatial dependence, a positive analysis is made on the labor employment and its influencing factors. The results show that there is significant spatial correlation and spatial dependence existing in the province border, furthermore the spatial correlation and spatial dependence of the neighboring provinc play a positive role on the labor employment. However, the effect of spatial spillover is far smaller than the spatial dependence resulting from the convergence of industrial structure. Among the various factors which affecting the labor employment of provinces, technical progress, the level of marketing and government expenditure have a significant effect on the provincial labor employment and level of regional employment, but the effects of the wage level and per capita play an important role in raising the disposable income are not significant. The impact of the urbanization of population on employment is little due to the particularity of China＇s economic and social development. Even if the effect of the industrial level on the regional employment is not significant due to the existence of multicollinearity , it has many important policy implications because of the positive effect on the provincial labor employment.