城市化水平与长期经济增长关系的实证分析——基于27个省份面板数据的考察

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization Level and Long-term Economic Growth——An Investigation Based on the Panel Data of 27 Provinces

笔者利用一个城市化水平内生增长模型,借助非平稳面板数据的方法,考察了中国省际城市化水平与经济增长之间的关系。结论表明,虽然中国整体的城市化水平比较低,需要通过提高城市化水平来促进经济增长,但并不是所有省份的城市化水平提高都能促进经济增长,某些省份存在着相对于经济增长的过度城市化问题,其城市化水平的提高对经济增长起负向作用,而且过度城市化的负面效应会抵消投资所带来的效应。

Using an endogenous growth model of urbanization level and nonstationary panel data techniques,the author reviewed the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in the provinces of China.The conclusion shows that though the overall urbanization level of china is low and the urbanization level needs to be improved to accelerate economic growth,the improvement in urbanization level can not promote economic growth in all the provinces.Some provinces have become overurbanized compared with economic growth and the improvement in their urbanization level has negative effect on economic growth.In addition the negative effect of overurbanization might counteract the effect of investment.