增加土地供应能抑制房价过快上涨吗?

Will Increase in Land Supply Restrain the Excessive Rise of Housing Prices?

政府抑制房价过快上涨所采用的常用的政策之一是增加土地供应的数量,但这一措施在现实中并不总是有效的。笔者构建了一个简化的房价与地价的决定模型,分析了政府的土地供应数量对房价和地价的影响。笔者认为,政府调控措施的效果依赖于具体的市场条件,特别是投机现象的严重程度和预期房价对地价变动的敏感程度。如果一个房地产市场中存在着比较严重的投机现象,则增加土地供应的政策有可能会进一步提高而不是降低房价。

To prevent housing prices from going up too fast,a major policy taken by the government is to increase the supply of land.However,in reality this policy has not been always effective.The author built a simple model about the determination of housing prices and land prices and analyzed the influence of government land supply on housing prices and land prices.The author holds that the effect of government regulation measures depends on specific market conditions,especially the extent of speculation and the sensitivity of expected housing prices to the change in land prices.In a housing market with a large extent of speculation,an increase in land supply may raise rather than lower housing prices.