随机模拟法在滑坡可靠性分析中若干规律的讨论

Discussion on some regularities in reliability analysis of landslide based on Monte-Carlo method

以三峡库区某滑坡为研究对象,对基于Monte-Carlo法的滑坡可靠性分析中的若干规律进行了初步探讨。研究发现,随机变量的概率分布类型对滑坡破坏概率的影响较小,且随机变量服从不同概率分布时稳定性系数样本均近似服从正态分布;模拟次数小于1 000时,模拟次数对破坏概率影响较大,当模拟次数达到7000次时,则破坏概率计算结果趋于稳定;随机变量的变异系数对滑坡破坏概率的影响较大,且破坏概率随随机变量变异系数的增大而增大。

Tudiling landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area is taken as research object in this paper,and some regularities in reliability analysis of landslide are discussed based on Monte-Carlo method.It is found that probability distribution type of random variables has small influence on failure probability of landslide and stable coefficients obey normal distribution approximately irrespective of distributions of random variables;simulation times have large influence on failure probability when simulation times are less than 1000,while failure probability keeps stable when simulation times reach 7000;the variability coefficients of random variables have large influence on failure probability,and failure probability increases with the increasing of the variability coefficients of random variables.