滞后效应视角下FDI对经济增长影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on Effect of FDI on Economic Growth From Perspective of Lagged-effect

利用1991—2008年的数据,从产业结构的视角,运用ADL模型和二元滞后回归模型的思想对我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。以AIC信息准则、SC信息准则及LR统计量作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对三次产业的FDI及产业经济增长变量的滞后期进行估计并测算。结果表明,我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间均存在不同程度的当年需求效应和滞后年份的供给效应。最后,就提高FDI在三次产业的利用效率提出建议。

Using the data from 1991-2008,this paper studies empirically the relationships between FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries by using the thoughts of ADL model and binary lag model from the perspective of industrial structure.And it uses the information criterion of AIC and SC and LR statistic as the judgment standard of selecting optimal lag order number,and estimates and calculates the lagged-time about the variables of FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries.The result indicates that there exist current demand effect with different degree and lagging demand effect behind in the year between FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries.Finally,it proposes suggestions for improving the utilization efficiency of FDI invested in three industries.