基于交通流统计的公路路面养护决策模型探讨

Prediction Model Discussion based on the Traffic Flow Statistics about the Service Performance of Asphalt Pavement

现有公路沥青路面使用性能预测模型主要有基于传统统计回归分析的路面性能标准衰变方程和利用灰色系统理论的预测模型。本质上两者都是在现有数据基础上进行模型检验和修正的分析方法。通过对现有模型的对比分析,可以看出路面性能标准衰变方程,数学、物理含义清晰明确,加以改造便可适应对养护需求的预测。

In order to evaluate the service performance of asphalt pavement,the standard disintegration equation base on the regression theory and the prediction model based on the gray system theory were widely used.Essentially both are the methods of analysis by model test and correction based on the existing data.The contrast analysis on the existing prediction models shows that the standard disintegration equation has the advantage of clear mathematical and physical meanings,and can adapt to the maintenance requirements prediction with some transformation.