火灾疏散中羊群效应的理论探析与模拟研究

Theoretical analysis and simulation study of herd behavior in fire evacuation

将羊群效应这个社会行为学概念引申到火灾安全科学领域,运用信息阶梯式传播的社会心理学理论,解释紧急疏散中可能存在的羊群效应。以"信息传播"和"情感传染"的视角,分析了羊群效应的形成过程、机理和特征,同时指出羊群效应的两种随机性。以某大型阅览室为例,运用计算机数值模拟和虚拟现实技术,设置多种有羊群行为的疏散场景,测试羊群效应及两种随机性对疏散的影响。结论表明:非理性的羊群效应显著增加了必须疏散时间,降低了群体疏散效率和人员疏散可靠性,增大了疏散失败和拥挤踩踏的风险。建议火灾风险评价、应急预案制定和疏散设计应考虑羊群行为等极端情况下对疏散出口个数、疏散出口宽度、疏散距离、疏散路线、疏散方式的影响。

Herd behavior,a social behavior conception was introduced into fire safety science.The possible herd behavior in fire evacuation was illustrated by informational cascade theory of social psychology.The forming process,mechanism, characteristic and randomness of herd behavior were analyzed in view of ＂information cascade ＂ and ＂emotional contagion ＂.The computer simulation and virtual reality technology was adopted,and irrational herd behavior and randomness in evacuation was tested in a reading room.A conclusion that irrational herd having significant effect on request safety evacuation time,lowering group effect of evacuation and human reliability,and increasing probability of failure was drawn.The suggestion was given which herd behavior must be considered in evacuation design,fire risk assessment and emergency preplan including exit number,exit width,evacuation distance,exit path,evacuation way.