气候变化对中国国家安全的影响

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CHINA'S NATIONAL SECURITY

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告和2007年中国发布的气候变化国家评估报告的结果,整理、分类和提炼出关系中国国家安全的气候变化要素及其影响的演变趋势和区域响应特征,并分析其产生的安全后果。结果表明,基础设施的损毁、基础自然资源的缺失以及人民生命财产损失是气候变化产生的三个关键社会经济影响。气候变化本身及其产生的社会经济影响与国家现有的地缘政治压力相互作用,产生广泛的安全后果,主要表现在三方面:通过降低人民生存质量而影响社会和地区稳定;影响国防和军队建设;改变海洋边界和能源通道格局,威胁中国领土主权及海洋权益。

Based on the fourth IPCC assessment report and national climate change assessment report,key factors of climate change and their socioeconomic influences were extracted and classified,and their influences on National Security were analyzed.The results show that loss of infrastructure,resource scarcity and direct loss of people＇s lives and property are the three key socioeconomic influences of climate change.Climate change and the interaction between its key socioeconomic influences and geopolitics pressure would produce a wide range of security consequences,which were reflected in the following three aspects.Firstly,climate change would lower the quality of life and affect the social and regional stability;Secondly,it has a negative impact on national defense and armed forces;Thirdly,it will change the marine borderline and energy corridor pattern,which will pose a threat to Chinese sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.