基于未确知测度理论的CCPM缓冲区尺寸设计

Buffer size designing of critical chain project management based on unascertained measure theory

从工程项目的工序风险偏好程度、执行时间不确定性程度、复杂性程度和开工柔性程度4种特性入手,建立工序特性对缓冲区尺寸影响程度指标体系。引入未确知测度理论,计算工序特性对缓冲区尺寸影响程度的综合测度向量,利用工序特性对缓冲区尺寸的中等影响程度进行定性判断,并进一步采用置信度识别准则定量确定缓冲区尺寸。算例结果表明,工序A～Z的缓冲区影响因子在[0.177,0.804]范围内,工序消耗缓冲区尺寸的影响因子会随着工序特性而合理调整,从而验证了该设计模型的可行性。

The influence index system of process characteristics to buffer size was built from the following 4 aspects： the process risk preference,the execution time uncertainty,the complexity and the starting flexibility.The unascertained measurement theory was introduced to calculate the comprehensive measure vector of process characteristics to buffer size influence.Then the buffer size was qualitatively decide according to the moderate influence of process characteristics and quantitative calculated by confidence identifying criterion.Examples show that the influence factors of buffer fall in [0.177,0.804] from process A to Z,and the influence factors consumed will be rationally readjusted with process characteristics,which verifys the validity of this approach.