土地督察的耕地保护效果评价

Arable Land Conservation Effects of Land Supervision in China

为分析土地督察的耕地保护效果,论文把这目标分解为两个问题,即土地督察制度的实施是否对减少建设占用耕地面积产生了影响;如果有显著影响,效果有多大。论文收集了1999-2007年的省级面版数据,分别采用了固定效应模型、随机效应和混合OLS模型加以估计,通过相关检验,采用了固定效应模型的估计结果。在模型估计结果的基础上,对土地督察的耕地效果进行了评价。分析表明:①土地督察的确对减少建设占用耕地面积有显著影响,土地例行督察的耕地保护效果要好于土地专项督察的耕地保护效果,土地专项督察比例(每提高1%,约能减少建设占用耕地面积为261 hm2,例行督察比例每提高1%,约能减少建设占用耕地面积为929 hm2;②由于实施专项督察,2007年和2008年分别减少建设占用耕地面积32 160.52 hm2和6 442.90 hm2,分别占当年建设占用耕地面积的17.08%和3.36%;2008年由于实行了土地例行督察,减少建设占用耕地面积41 127.79 hm2,约占当年建设占用耕地面积的21.5%;③由于实行了土地例行督察和专项督察,2007年和2008年分别减少建设占用耕地面积32 160.52 hm2和47 570.70 hm2,分别占当年建设占用耕地面积的17.08%和24.83%。

The purpose of this study aimed to assess the effects of land supervision on the conversion of arable land to construction use. The question about this is defined whether land supervision has saved arable land from conversion to construction use, and if so, how much the effect is. The province-level panel data from 1999 to 2008 were collected, and the fixed-effects model, random-effects model and pooled OLS model were applied to estimate the equations. The test on those models suggests that the fixed-effects model is more appropriate than random-effects model and pooled OLS model. The effectiveness of land supervision on the conversion of arable land to construetionuse was evaluated based on the statistical significance of variables about land supervision and by computing the difference of arable land area converted to construetionuse land with and without land supervision in effect. The result shows that land supervision has provided a measurable degree of decreasing arable land conversion to construction use; the area of arable land conversion to construction purpose decreased about 261 ha with a 1% increment of rate of special land supervision, and the area of arable land conversion to construction purpose decreased about 929 ha with a 1% increment of rate of regular land supervision. Moreover, the loss of arable land due to construction use in 9007 and 2008 respectively decreased 32 160.52 ha and 6 442.90 ha because of special land supervision in effect, which is about 7.08% and 3.36% of actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2007 and 2008 ; the loss of arable land due to construction use in 2008 decreased 41 127.79 ha because of regular land supervision in effect, which is about 21.5% of the actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2008. The last but not the least, the loss of arable land due to construction use in 2007 and 2008 respectively decreased 32 160.52 ha and 47 570. 70 ha because of both special land supervision and regular land supervision in effect, which is about 7.08% and 24.83% of the actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2007 and 2008.