北京市生产性土地的部门关联效应分析

Analysis of Linkage Effects of Beijing Productive Land Resource among Sector Blocks

本文基于生态足迹的投入产出模型,利用改进的HEM方法和北京市2007年投入产出表及相关数据,计算生产性土地的部门关联效应指标,对北京市9部门块土地资源关联效应进行了分析。研究结果表明:土地资源纵向总效应超过直接消耗的部门块主要由制造业、建筑业和服务业等部门构成;采选业部门块有更大的土地资源转让潜力;其他部门块都要从本部门块以外获取土地资源,导致各部门块的外部后向关联及外部前向关联都很大。本文认为:生产性土地的关联效应实际上是经济系统部门间土地资源需求的转移,最终需求总量不变,其结构调整就不会对土地资源总量产生影响;改进的HEM方法结合生态足迹最终需求,分析直接土地资源消耗数量,分解影响部门土地资源的组成因素,可以更直接、明确地量化部门间以及部门内部土地资源的关联关系;如果能够以实物型投入产出表代替货币型投入产出表,可以更加科学地反映经济系统中各产业部门土地资源的关联特性。

Based on the input-output model on ecological footprint, the modified hypothetical extraction method and input-output table 2007 of Beijing are applied to compute indicators and analyze the linkage effects of Beijing productive land resource among 9 sector blocks. The results show that the sector blocks, whose vertically integrated production outnumbers direct consumption, consist of manufacturing, construction and services. Mining sector block has a greater potential for the transfer of land resources, while other sector blocks must get part of land resources from the outside, which leads to a large external backward linkage and external forward linkage. This paper argues that linkage effects of productive land resources among different sectors are actually the demand that transfers from one sector to another. If the total final demand unchanged, the structure adjustment will not affect the total amount of land resources. Modified hypothetical extraetion method, combining the final demand of ecological footprint, analyzing direct consumption and decomposing the components of land resources, can more directly and clearly quantify the linkage relationship of land resources between and within the sector bloeks. Linkage effeets of land resources among industries can be more scientifically reflected when physical input-output tables are used instead of monetary input-output tables.