碳排放的人文发展绩效指标与实证分析

Human Development Performance Index and Empirical Analysis of Carbon Emission

随着气候问题的日益凸显,发展低碳经济已成为全球共识。因此,提高碳排放绩效便成为题中应有之义。既有的关于碳排放绩效的研究主要围绕碳生产率指标展开,问题在于碳生产率测度的是碳排放的经济绩效,而非经济社会福利绩效。本文综合排放总量、人均排放以及发展阶段三个因素,构建碳排放的人文发展绩效指标,在此基础上对二十国集团1990-2006年的碳排放绩效进行分析,结果显示历年绩效平均值排前五名的国家是印度尼西亚、巴西、阿根廷、土耳其和墨西哥。七个国家的碳排放绩效呈现上升的趋势,其中德国和英国碳排放绩效增速较快,且在控制碳排放的同时保持了人类发展水平的提高,值得其他国家效仿。人类发展指数和碳排放绩效二维组合的国家分类表明,碳排放绩效不高是各国普遍存在的问题。无论从动态还是静态角度来看,中国目前都不具备低碳竞争优势。最后对中国如何提高碳排放绩效提出了从技术、制度与理念三方面进行创新的政策建议。

Since the problem of climate change has become increasingly severe, the world has reached a consensus on the development of low-earl）on economy, and furthermore, the improvement of carbon emission performance has become inherently indispensable. Existing research on the performance of carbon emission focuses mostly on carbon productivity, which measures its economic rather than soeio-eeonomic welfare performance. This paper develops the human development performance index of carbon emission by integrating three key factors： aggregate emission, per capita emission, and development stages. Moreover, the indicators serve as the basis to analyze the performance of carbon emission of G20 countries from 1990- 2006. The result shows that Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey and Mexico are the top 5 countries of carbon emission performance on average. Seven countries have exhibited an increasing trend of carbon emission performance, among which, Germany and UK are two models for other countries to learn from because they increase their carbon emission performance while keeping the increase of human development indexes and keeping carbon emission under control. The double-dimension classification （human development index and carbon emission performance） of countries indicates that low performance of＇ carbon emission is a universal problem in all countries. Either from dynamic or static perspective, China has no low-carbon competitiveness up to now. At the end, the paper proposes some policy suggestions to enhance China＇s performance of carbon emission through technological, institutional and conceptual innovation.