中国制造业碳排放强度变动及其因素分解

On the Changes in the Carbon Emission Intensity of China's Manufacturing Industry and Its Factors Decomposition

目前,中国已成为世界制造大国,并且制造业的碳排放量已占全国碳排放总量的80%以上,要寻找制造业的有效减排途径,就需要准确分析和计量促使制造业碳排放增加的影响因素。为此,本文在对我国制造业碳排放强度变化趋势进行分析的基础上,运用因素分解法将碳排放强度变化分解为结构份额与效率份额,并基于1996-2007年的统计数据对我国制造业碳排放强度变化中的结构份额和效率份额进行了测算。结果表明,我国制造业碳排放强度在1996-2007年间整体呈现出下降的趋势,我国制造业碳排放强度的下降均是由效率引起的,而结构则引起了碳排放强度的提升。因此,应大力推进低碳技术的开发,以进一步发挥效率份额在制造业碳排放强度下降的积极作用,同时,进一步优化制造业产业结构,逐步淘汰一些高碳排放行业,使制造业产业结构向规模化、低碳化和高端化升级。

At present, China has become the world manufacturing country and carbon emissions in the manufacturing sector accounts for the national carbon emissions more than 80% , to search for an effective route of emissions reduction in the manufacturing industry, it will need to analyze and measure the factors which promote the increase of carbon emissions in manufacturing industry. Thus this paper, analyzes the changes in the carbon emission intensity of China＇ s manufacturing industry firstly, and on basis of it, calculates the structure share and efficiency share of the changes in the carbon emission intensity of China＇ s manufacturing industry by using the factor decomposition method and the statistical data from 1996 to 2007. The results show that the carbon emission intensity of China＇ s manufacturing industry in 1996 -2007 displayed an overall downward trend which was caused by efficiency, while structure plays a retardation effect, so we should vigorously promote the development of low carbon technology in order to further develop the positive role of efficiency share in the decrease of carbon intensity in manufacturing industry, at the same time, we should optimize the industrial structure of manufacturing industry, and wash out the high-carbon industries so as to promote industry structure of manufacturing industry to be scale, low-carbon and high-end.