中国CO_2排放的影响因素分解与预测

Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emission in China and Forecasting Its Future Trend

我国正处于2008年美国金融危机影响下,刺激经济一系列政策的落实观测期,要实现单位国内生产总值CO2排放的目标,任务十分艰巨。本文采用投入产出结构分解技术,对1997-2004年我国应对亚洲金融危机时期的CO2排放量变动进行了7因素的分解测算,结果表明经济增长是CO2排放上升的主要驱动力,能源节约是驱动我国CO2排放下降的主要因素,经济结构变动的影响相对较小。特别,国内最终需求、出口成长以及出口结构变动均推动CO2排放上升,国内最终需求结构变动以及能源替代表现出了对CO2排放的抑制影响等。同时,在我国经济"三步走"目标的前提下,结合能源节约设计了CO2排放的3类情景,给出了未来CO2排放的态势预测,提出了加强需求结构调整、能源效率提高以及可再生能源开发利用的保增长与CO2减排并行不悖的建议。

To eliminate the negative impact of 2008 U. S financial crisis, China has been dedicated to stimulating its economy by means of a series of policies. During such a period, it is a very arduous task to realize the reduction target of CO2 emission intensity. This paper adopts a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy-related CO/emission in China during the period 1997-2004, the period when China experienced the Asian financial crisis. The results show that： （1） economic growth is the main positive driving force of CO2 emission changes; （2） energy conservation is the dominant contributor to the decline in CO2 emission; （3） the eftect of economic structure contributes little to the changes in CO2 emission. Specifically, domestic final demand and export, eombined with the structural shift of export, push up CO2 emission. Structural changes of domestic final demand and fuel shift both exhibit little positive effect on CO2 emission. Furthermore, with the premise that economic growth will follow its strategy planning, this paper designs three scenarios of energy conservation to forecast the future CO2 emission trend. We conclude that, to harmonize the economic growth and CO2 emission reduction, it is important to further enforce policies on the structural change of final demand and enhance energy efficiency and renewable energy substitution.