基于综合模拟法的区域旅游投资预警研究*——以河南省为例

Study on the Warning of Regional Tourism Investment Based on the Method of Comprehensive Simulation:Taking Henan Province as an Example

旅游投资是推动旅游发展的重要力量,但旅游投资方向、投资规模等要和旅游发展阶段及旅游市场需求相吻合,为避免旅游投资"潮涌现象"的发生,需对旅游投资进行预警研究。本文采用综合模拟法,从旅游投资发展速度、旅游供求平衡、旅游投资内部均衡、旅游投资与区域经济协调性等4个指标类别出发,构建了旅游投资预警模型。运用该模型对河南旅游投资进行了实证研究,结果表明,河南旅游投资虽然基本上还处于健康区域内,但河南旅游投资已经初步显现出投资微热、投资增速过快、度假产品投资过热、旅游投资正逐步出现和区域经济不协调的现象。基于河南旅游投资现实,为避免投资泡沫,河南旅游急需制定合理的旅游产业投资引导和控制性政策,规范盲目的投资行为,避免旅游产品结构性过剩,从而实现河南旅游平稳可持续发展。

Tourism investment is an important force to promote tourism development. However, it is important that the direction and scale of tourism investment showd be consistent with tourism development stages and the needs of tourism market. In order to avoid ＂tide phenomenon＂ from happening, it is necessary to study early warning on tourism investment. Based on the method of comprehensive simulation, this paper builds the early warning model of tourism investment in four index categories including the rate of tourism investment development, the balance between tourism demand and supply, the internal balance of tourism investment, and the coordination of tourism investment with regional economy. This is applied to make an empirical study of Henan Province＇ s tourism investment. The result shows that although basically situated in the healthy area, Henan＇ s tourism investment has shown such phenomena as slight over-investment, excessive growth, over-investment in holiday products, and inconsistency between tourism investment and regional economy. Based on the reality of Henan tourism investment, it is urgent to make control policies for investment in tourism industry, regulate the blind investment behavior and to avoid a structural surplus of tourism products in order to achieve a stable and sustainable development of tourism in Henan.