日本大地震对全球能源发展产生的影响

Impacts of Japan's Earthquake on Global Energy Development

2011年北京时间3月11日,日本东北部宫城县以东太平洋海域发生里氏9级特大地震并引发海啸。分析了此次地震、海啸及核泄漏对全球能源的影响:民众反对发展核电站的声音将可能更多,各国政府在核电利用问题上更为谨慎与保守。中短期内核电将较难实现大幅增长。短期而言,对核电有效替代的仍是化石能源,能源需求增长将进一步加大全球一次能源价格的上涨压力。长期而言,发达国家的替代选择更倾向于可再生能源,这种转换有助于较快地实现全球低碳转型。指出此次地震对中国油气供应影响不大。提出中国迫切需要建立较为灵活的能源安全预警防范机制,以适应由于能源供应短缺带来的种种问题。

On March 11, 2011, a 9-magniutde earthquake hit Pacific Ocean in the northeast region of Miyagi-Ken in Japan, causing a damaging tsunami and a severe nuclear release. This paper analyzed the following impacts of the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear release on the global energy market, featuring stronger objection of the public to development of nuclear energy, more precautious and conservative approaches of governments to utilization of nuclear energy. Therefore, in the short and middle term, it is difficult to substantially increase nuclear energy. In the short term, the fossil energy is still the most competitive alternative of nuclear energy; therefore the increasing demand for energy will exert more pressures on the fuel prices. In the long term, developed countries prefer renewable energies to an even larger extent. This transition in energy resources facilitates with realizing the global low-carbonization. This paper states that, while Japan＇s earthquake＇ has limited impacts on China＇s oil and natural gas supply, China badly needs to establish a flexible waning and preventive system in energy security so as to address issues which might arise from shortage of energy supply.