艰难的抉择 深远的影响——关于中共中央《公开信》暨计划生育效果评估

Difficult Choice and Profound Impact

为了控制人口过快增长,加速改变我国一穷二白的面貌,1980年中共中央发出《公开信》,号召一对夫妇只生一个孩子。在公开信指引下,我国计划生育取得了巨大成就,妇女终身生育率从6.2下降到1.8,少生了5.69亿人,减少了资源消耗,保护了生态环境,促进了经济发展。本文引用了人类发展指数和生育文化指数对各省、区、市妇女终身生育水平差别进行了解释;以印度1970年以来的总和生育率为参数,对没有生育政策的人口发展进行模拟,结果证明经济社会发展对生育率下降发挥了主要作用,贡献率为62%,而计划生育的贡献率为38%。从1991年开始,我国已进入低生育水平时期,随着我国经济社会进一步发展,生育率还将继续下降,人口发展正面临新的挑战。时代赋予了计划生育新的任务,本世纪要把我国生育率稳定在更替水平,才能为经济社会可持续发展提供良好的人口环境。

In order to control the rapid population increasing speed, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued an open letter. Guided by the open letter, China has got great achievement, has seen 569 million fewer births. The lifetime fertility of woman has come down from 6. 2 to 1.8, having decreased resources consumption, preserved the ecological environment, and pro- moted economic growth. This paper has quoted the human development index and index of bearing culture, to explain the differences of women＇s lifetime fertilities in every province. Take the total fertility rate of India during the past 1970 as the parameter, Imitate the population development without control policy, certificate the main effect is the economic and social development contribution leads being 62% ,while the birth control contribution leads being 38%. From 1991, China has entered the period of low birth rates, the fertility rate will continue coming down with the economic and social development. In new century, the fertility should be stable at the replacement level to provide a fine population environment for the sustainable development of economy and society.