中国成品油定价机制:基于计量模型的一个解释

Pricing mechanism of refined oil product in China:an explanation based on econometric models

随着我国石油消费量不断增长、石油对外依存度不断上升,我国国内出现了"油价倒挂"、"油荒"等关系国计民生的严重问题。论文选取了2007年3月到2010年5月的国内成品油和国际原油市场价格数据通过实证研究发现:国际原油价格和国内物价总水平是影响我国成品油市场价格的两个主要因素,国内的成品油价格与国际原油市场挂钩的市场化改革的同时,争取做到与我国宏观经济运行周期和宏观调控政策相一致,才能保证能源的可持续利用。

As China＇ s oil consumption and dependence of foreign oil increased, the competition of international oil market becomes sharper. ＂Price upside down＂, ＂oil shortage＂ and other serious problems happened successively. This article chooses the data from March 2007 to May 2010 to carry out an empirical analysis. Empirical results indicate that international crude oil prices and domestic price level are two major factors which affect the domestic oil price. In order to ensure the sustainability of energy consumption, the oil pricing mechanism must be consistent with macroeconomic cycle and macro - control policy, while integrated with the intemational crude oil market.