伊朗核制裁有效性的影响因素分析

Factors for the Efficiency of Iran Nuclear Embargo

伊朗核问题由于其敏感性和复杂性,一直是国际社会关注的热点,自2006年1月3日伊朗宣布恢复中止两年多的核燃料研究后,联合国四次通过对伊朗进行制裁的决议,望其能够停止铀浓缩研究,进而放弃谋求核武器计划。但从目前的情况来看,伊朗方面没有做出实质性的让步,结果不令人满意。围绕制裁效果来看,各国存在不同程度的分歧,究竟国际制裁在伊朗弃核问题上能发挥多大的作用,制止伊朗发展核武器除了高压与接触两种基本途径外,是否存在第三种途径,是哪些因素影响和制约了制裁的效果,文章希望通过系统分析得出有参考价值的结论。

Iran nuclear issue,complicated and sensitive,has been a hot focus concerned by the international society.The U.N.has passed nuclear embargo resolutions aiming to Iran since Iran declared that the nuclear fuel research has been re-started on Jan.3d,2006.The U.N.aims to make Iran stop uranium enrichment research,as well as nuclear weapon plan.However,Iran has not made any practical concession yet.There are different ideas about how far the resolution will take effect on this issue considering the current situation.In addition to the two basic approaches（high pressure and contact）,whether the third approach exists,and what factors affect and limit the efficiency are analyzed in this paper.