我国货币政策传导机制有效性的实证研究——基于汇率传导渠道的VAR模型分析

An Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in China——With the Analysis of VAR Model on Exchange Rate Conduction Channels

应用当代主流的计量经济学的研究方法,通过对2002年以来相关的经济金融月度数据的实证分析,探究了我国货币政策传导渠道之汇率传导渠道的运作机制以及传导效果,不仅在于对汇率传导渠道的有效性得出一个基本判断,而且想借此判断在深入分析的基础上,不断完善我国货币政策传导的微观金融环境,期望进一步推动我国的金融市场建设和金融体制改革。

Among the specific research methods, this paper mainly uses the contemporary mainstream econometric research methods, and makes a research on the operating mechanism and propagation effects of exchange rate transmission channels through empirical analysis of relevant economic data since 2002. The purpose of writing this paper not only lies in getting a basic judgment on the effectiveness of exchange rate transmission mechanism, but also wants to improve the financial environment, promote the construction of financial markets and the reform of financial system.