基于趋势面模拟的城市用水量分析及预测

Urban Water Consumption Analysis and Prediction Based on Trend Surface

以山西省某市1999-2009年城市用水量为因变量,该市城镇化水平和GDP为自变量,建立了城市用水量变化趋势面模型,比较了不同阶次趋势面模型的拟合程度,并绘制了趋势面和残差等值线图。经分析得出,该市城市用水量与城镇化水平、经济状况等因素密切相关,并可通过预测将来某年的城镇化水平和GDP,进而预测所研究年份的城市用水量。

Useing the urban water consumption of some city in Shanxi Province from 1999 to 2009 as the dependent variable and urbanization level and GDP of the city as the independent variables,a trend surface model of urban water consumption is established in this paper.Furthermore,the fitting degree of different order trend surface models is compared and the trend surface and residual contour map is drawn.From the analysis,it can obtained that the urban water consumption of the city is closely related with the level of urbanization and economic conditions.The urban water demand in a particular year in future can be predicted by predicting the level of urbanization and the GDP in the year.