大股东减持影响因素的理论和实证分析

The Determinants of Reduction of the Large Shareholders： Theory and Evidence

本文考察了影响企业当前与未来价值的因素（公司治理、市场时机、盈利能力以及盈余质量）是否影响大股东的减持行为。实证结果表明：当公司股票的价值越可能被高估时，大股东减持的可能性越大。具体来讲，治理机制较差的公司、经行业调整的市盈率和市净率越高的公司、盈余质量越低的公司，大股东减持的可能性越大。

This study examines how the value-related factors （corporate governance, timing ability, profitability and earnings quality） influence the reduction of the large share- holders. The empirical results show that the frequency of the reduction of the large shareholders is higher for the over-valued firms. More specifically, we find that the probability of the reduction of the large shareholders is high for firms with bad corporate governance mechanism, high industry-adjusted PE and PB ratio, and / or low earnings quality. This study has some theoretical value and practical value. In theory, through the theoretical analysis of major shareholder＇s reduction factors enriched academic literature about in- sider trading, corporate governance, market timing machine, earnings quality. In practice, the reduction of the large shareholders change the company＇s ownership structure and the agency problem between shareholders and managers, so this study has important reference value found for the company＇s managers.