城中村改造的博弈模型及实证研究

Game Model and Empirical Research of a Urban Village Reconstruction

本文构建了一个政府、村集体、发展商参与的城中村改造博弈模型。并得出了城中村改造的三种模式:城市政府主导、村集体组织自治改造、共同参与开发。结果表明:规划容积率是政府决策是否启动城中村改造和发展商决策是否参与改造的至关因素。

This paper applies game theory to build up a game model of urban village reconstruction among the government, village collective and developer. It concludes three patterns for urban village reconstruction, namely, the urban government taking the lead, the village collective organizing the reconstruction and joint development. The result indicates that the plot ratio is the most important factor for government to decide whether to start the urban village reconstruction and the developer to decide whether to participate in the reconstruction. Finally, taking the urban village reconstruction of Zhanongkou Community of Jianggan District in Hangzhou as an example, this paper carries out empirical analysis to the above conclusion.