中国股价指数与宏观经济关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Chinese Stock Index and Macro-economy

股市的“晴雨表”被认为是它的基本功能之一，本文通过对1994年到2004年股指与宏观经济的关系进 行实证分析，探讨了在不同时期造成股指偏离宏观经济的内在原因，指出中国股市的根本缺陷在于政府高度集权 的监管模式。

Stock market has a basic function as a barometer of economy.According to the empirical analysis on the relationship between stock index and macro-economy from the year 1994 to 2004,the author explores what really causes the stock index unable to reflect the trend of macro-economy development correctly in different periods and infers that the key problem existing in Chinese stock market is the supervision pattern of governmental centralization.