三支交叉汾河大桥交通量预测研究

The Traffic Prediction Research of Three Cross-Fen Bridge

为了科学预测三支交叉公路桥交通量,以交通工程学、交通流等理论为基础,通过对省道宁白线、忻黑线的三支交叉汾河大桥的实地交通调查,定量分析其交通组成和交通量的变化规律,借助计算机辅助手段,采用时间序列法构建了三支交叉桥交通量的预测模型,结合实际交通流加权得到三支交叉汾河大桥目标年交通量,并以该区域的社会经济状况建立了多因素交通量模型进行了拟合验证。最终为三支交叉桥交通量的科学预测探索了一种新的思路。

To forecast the traffic of three cross-road bridge scientifically,the paper analyze the traffic composition and the traffic volume variation quantitatively through the three cross-bridge field traffic surveys of highway Ningbai line and Xinhei line,which is based on the theories of traffic engineering,traffic flow,and so on.Also,traffic forecasting model about three cross-bridge was constructed using time series method with computer-aided tools.In addition,the traffic volume of three cross-fen bridge in the target year is gotten from the combination of weighted actual traffic flow and is fitting verified by the multi-factor model which is established through socioeconomic situation in the region.Finally,the paper explores a new way of thinking to forecast the traffic volume of three cross-bridge scientifically.