震害评估系统中的宏观经济指标的网格化技术及实现

Gridding Technique of Macroeconomic Indicators and Its Realization in Earthquake Loss Evaluation System

国内当前的地震灾害应急评估系统基础数据库以具有空间面属性的乡镇级行政区为最小统计单元,乡镇人口及各类房屋建筑面积在评估时一般按照行政区面积进行了平均化处理,而未考虑实际人口分布的差异。本文采用前人在人口密度与城乡空间分布及城乡GDP分布之间的统计模型,以及基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害快速评估思路,深入探讨了以乡镇行政区为统计单元转化为以规则网格作为统计单元的震害预测方法。通过与GoogleEarth影像对比,并将本文编写的基于宏观经济指标进行震害快速评估的程序所计算的结果,与当前地震灾害应急评估系统的计算结果进行对比,结果表明,网格化后的数据不仅能有效地体现天津地区的人口、经济分布特征,而且灾害评估结果也比较稳定可靠,同时在计算速度上还快了1个量级以上。

In current earthquake loss evaluation database, the collected basic data is based on the minimal statistical unit of towns that confined to the administration map. Although there is the diversity of population density and the GDP in different town administration map, the evaluation program codes make an average application with town area in practice. In this paper, we discuss ed the feasibility to grid basic data from database, and validate the rationality of constructing earthquake loss evaluation basic data with gridding data. Our results are compared with the Google Earth image and the results from current earthquake loss evaluation system. It is found that the regular grid data can effectively represent the distribution of population density and GDP of Tianjin. Moreover, our results of earthquake loss evaluation are considerably stable, and one order of less time consuming for calculation.