基于投入产出模型的大型活动对举办地的经济影响——以广交会为例

An Empirical Study on the Economic Impact of the Events with Input-output Model: A Case Study of Canton Fair,China

事件活动的经济影响评估是国外近20年来的研究热点,然而近年来遭到很多质疑和争论,国内在该领域的理论和实证研究仍处于起步阶段。一年两届的广交会对举办城市具有持续的深远影响,是城市大型活动的典范。本研究以104与105届广交会为案例,采用问卷调查及深度访谈法收集广交会所有参与者的消费支出与结构,并运用投入产出模型评估广交会对广州市间接经济影响。结论表明城市定期举办的大型商务活动对举办地的许多产业部门具有很强的拉动效应,对当地经济产生明显的持续性的经济效应;一届广交会对广州市的直接与间接效应合计163.24亿元,其中直接经济效应55.26亿元,间接经济效应为107.98亿元,直接与间接效应之比为1:1.95;2008年104届广交会的直接与间接效应总和占广州市全年GDP的1.98%;参与者对广州的经济拉动作用依次为采购商、参展企业、参展个人、承办方、交易团。此外,本文还特别就研究结论存有高估或低估倾向进行了探究。

Many studies have been focused on events＇economic impact assessment at home and abroad,but recently it has received some controversies and arguments.Relevant research in China is just at an initial stage.Canton Fair which is held twice every year is the biggest exhibition in China with long and deep influence on Guangzhou city.It is one of the typical cases of large-scale events as well.Based on the cases of 104th and 105th Canton Fair,this article focused on the expenditure of buyers,exhibitors,trading delegations and the organizers, and then assessed its direct and indirect economic impacts with the Input-Output Model.This study revealed that one large-scale and regular business event could have tremendous driving effects on different industries as well as significant and long-lasting direct and indirect economic impact on the host city.The direct and indirect economic effects at one event of Canton Fair were 5.526 billion yuan and 10.798 billion yuan respectively,or 16.324 billion yuan in total.The proportion of direct to indirect impact was 1：1.95.The total economic impact of the Canton Fair accounted for 1.98%of the GDP in Guangzhou in 2008.The ranking of the driving effect from the participants were buyers,exhibitors,representatives of the company,organizer and trade group.What＇s more,this paper gave detailed discussion on the results.