景洪5.1、5.5级地震地下水动态预报启示

ENLIGHTENMENT FROM PREDICTION OF THE 5 1 AND THE M 5 5 JINGHONG EARTHQUAKES USING GROUNDWATER REGIME

本文动态追踪了１９９７ 年景洪５１ 、５５ 级中强震的孕震—发震的整个过程， 异常阶段属情清楚， 异常发展层次分明， 有动态感， 过程清晰完整， 表明中强地震亦有孕震过程。震前异常阶段的属性和异常的准同步是地震预测的主要依据。跟踪各类异常， 掌握地震孕育发展的进程， 把握时机有可能预报一些地震。本文是 “八五”、“九五”攻关成果运用的结果之一。

This paper traces the whole preparation-occurrence process for the M 5.1 and the M 5.5 Jinghong medium-strong earthquakes in 1997. Integrated and distinct process, with clear stages and levels of anomaly development and dynamic characteristic, shows medium-strong earthquake has seismogenic process. Stage property and quasi-synchronization of anomalies development before earthquake are a main basis for earthquake prediction and tracing different types of anomalies, grasping seismogenic process and siezing the opportunity could predict some earthquakes. This paper is one of the results using achievements of the key projects in the 8th and 9th Five-Year Plan periods.