用GM(1,M)模型预测水力压裂效果

PREDICATION OF THE PRODUCTION INCREASE MULTIPLE OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURING BY GM(1, M )

通过改进模型，用ＧＭ（１，Ｍ）模型可以作水力压裂的效果预测。尤其是，引入控制系数增加了ＧＭ（１，Ｍ）模型的灵活性，提高了精度，减少了计算量。采用这种方法作水力效果分析预测在川西浅层气藏取得到了很好的效果。

The petroleum engineering personnel are often confronted with great devotion and high risk when they try to betake themselves to hydraulic fracturing. So it is necessary to accurately prognosticate the effect of this technique. Gray theory model system is considered to possess randomness and illegibility. GM(1, M ) is one of these models. Usually it is used to deal with state analyses, but via our research, it also can be used to predicate the production increase multiple. Especially by adding a restrained coefficient - β , the authors have improved its flexibility, precision and the computational efficiency. The authors also used this method to predict the increase multiple of the wells of the Sichuan Basin Shallow Gas Store. These wells have all been disposed by this technique and good outcome has been got.