单一水库泄洪风险分析模式和计算方法

Risk Analysis of Flood Relief of Single Reservoir

提出了考虑调洪作用情况下单一水库泄洪布置方案的可靠度和风险分析模式及计算方法。对不考虑调洪作用的泄洪风险模式从理论上进行了拓展。初步分析了国内外大坝应承担的风险目标值。提出了以风险分析为基础的水库设计洪水标准选择，为合理确定泄洪布置方案及节约工程投资提供了一条较好的途径。本模式可以用于任何单一水库泄洪风险分析，同时为梯级水库泄洪布置方案的可靠度及风险分析奠定了基础。

This paper presents the risk analysis model and calculating method Of flood relief schemes of the reservoirs with regulating capacity, and discusses the model of the reservoirs without regulating capacity form theory. For the flood relief schemes of the reservoirs, the risk analysis is not only a balance of safety and economy but also the way for selecting the design flood standard. This model can be used in any single reservoir's flood relief risk analysis, and may be a basis of cascade reservoir's risk analysis.