传染病季节流行现象在预测天津市猩红热疫情中的应用

Prediction on Eepidemic of Scarlet Fever with Seasonal Variational Phenomenon in Tianjin

目的运用季节流行现象(Z-D现象)应用的理论对天津市猩红热疫情进行预测,为控制猩红热暴发流行提供理论依据。方法利用天津市1970—2010年猩红热历史疫情资料,建立猩红热时间序列,进行最佳截取点的月累计百分位数与前兆升降比的相关分析,运用构建的外推模型进行预测研究。结果对最佳截取点的月累计百分位数和流行年前兆升降比的相关分析,得出两者呈负相关(r=-0.465,P<0.01)。回顾性符合率达77.14%,外推性预测符合率为75.00%,显示预测效果较好。结论猩红热的时间序列存在Z-D现象,依据本流行年猩红热的疫情资料,对下一流行年的疫情发生情况作出预测。

[Objective]To employ Z-D Phenomenon in predicting the scarlet fever epidemic in Tianjin,and provide theoretical basis for control of scarlet fever outbreak.[Methods]The scarlet fever epidemic data collected from 1970-2010 were adopted to establish the time series of scarlet fever.Correlation analysis was conducted between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point.The prediction was based on the established extrapolation model.[Results]The analysis showed negative correlation between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate.（r=-0.0.465,P0.01）.Retrospective coincidence rate was up to 77.14%,and the coincidence rate of extrapolation forecast was 75.00%,which indicated that the forecasting result was satisfactory.[Conclusion]Z-D Phenomenon exists in the time series of scarlet fever,therefore the epidemic situation of scarlet fever can be predicted in the next year,based on the current epidemic data of Scarlet fever.