21世纪中叶中国需水展望

Perspective of the Water Demand of China by the Mid 21th Century

随着人口的增长和经济的高速发展，水资源短缺日益严重。利用基于宏观经济的分行业需水预测模型，对２１世纪上半叶中国的需水形势进行展望。进入２１世纪以后，在相当长的一段时间内，水资源紧缺仍然将困扰着我国社会经济的发展，供需矛盾有可能进一步加剧。２０３０年前后预计将会出现缺水的高峰，２０３０年后供需缺口有望减缓，到２１世纪中叶实现水资源总供给和总需求的基本平衡。

With the increase of population and fast development of economy, the shortage of water resources has become increasingly serious In this paper, the water demand of China by the mid 21th century has been forecasted based on the macroeconomic model of sectoral water demand projection The shortage of water resources will still baffle the social economical development of China and the contradiction between water supply and water demand may deteriorate in a considerable long time period in the 21th century.The water shortage peak is predicted to emerge around 2030.The gap between water supply and water demand is hopeful to be slowed down after 2030 and the relative balance between total water supply and total water resources demand will be reached in the mid 21th century.