新疆FDI、对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship among FDI, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Province

本文利用新疆1985～2008年的年度经济数据,对新疆外商直接投资(FDI)、对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究:协整检验结果表明,新疆FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系;Granger因果检验发现,FDI与经济增长、出口与经济增长、FDI与进口分别存在双向因果关系;脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解显示,从长期来看经济增长对FDI、出口和进口的动态影响都表现为正向响应,但FDI、进出口对GDP的影响力度并不大.

Based on the annual economic data of 1985～2008,this paper analyzes the effects to FDI,imports and exports in the economic growth of Xinjiang province by co-integration theory and Granger causality tests.The empirical analysis results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relation among FDI,international trade and economic growth,and a two-way causality between FDI and GDP,export and GDP,FDI and import.Besides,in long run,the dynamic impact response of economic growth on FDI and foreign trade is positive.