城市核与辐射恐怖事件的辐射影响预测软件

Development of a software for predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events incity areas

目的为更加直观了解核与辐射恐怖事件在城市地区的辐射影响范围，开发可将预测结果直接显示在城市电子地图上的系统软件。方法针对放射性物质散布、脏弹袭击、辐射设施爆炸或纵火袭击3种场景，采用高斯扩散模型，预测污染物在大气中的扩散与沉降，结合相应的剂量转换因子，估算“代表人”的内、外照射剂量。集成计算系统与Mapinfo^@地理信息系统，将相应的预测结果直观显示于城市电子地图。结果该软件可实现预测结果在城市电子地图上的直接显示。其预测结果与国外类似软件Hotspot^@的计算结果比较，对于主要污染区域的预测范围基本一致，事故下风向区域等剂量曲线位置偏差小于0.2km。结论研制出的软件系统能对城市核与辐射恐怖事件的辐射影响进行早期预测，为城市的应急响应提供参考，具有一定的实用价值。

Objective To develop a new software system that can directly display the predicted resuhs on an electronic map, in order to get a directly perceived understanding of the affected areas of nuclear and radiologieal terrorism events in city areas. Methods Three scenarios of events including spreading radioactive materials, dirty bomb attack, and explosion or arson attacks on the radiation facilities were assumed. Gaussian diffusion model was employed to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive pollutants, and both the internal and external doses were estimated for the representative person by using the corresponding dose conversion factors. Through integration of the computing system and Mapinfo geographic information system（GIS） , the predicted results were visually displayed on the electronic maps of a city. Results The new software system could visually display the predicted results on the electronic map of a city, and the predicted results were consistent with those calculated by the similar software Hotspot~ . The deviation between this system and Hotspot was less than 0.2 km for predicted isoplethie curves of dose rate downwind. Conclusions The newly developed software system is of the practical value in predicting the effects of nuclear and radiologieal terrorism events in city areas.