不确定条件下技术创新项目期权价值多因素敏感性分析——以煤制油项目为例

Multi-factors Sensitivity Analysis of Option Value of Technological Innovation Project under Uncertainty——Example of the Coal Liquefaction Project

采用正交试验对西部地区具有自主知识产权的煤炭间接液化技术创新项目进行敏感性分析,结果是对项目期权价值影响程度由大到小排序为:石油波动对项目期权价值的影响最大,其次是净现值的折现率、建设投资的增减变化、煤炭价格波动,这一结果的正确性得到单因素的验证,但多因素分析更符合实际,因而,更加正确合理。

This paper carries out the sensitivity analysis of technological innovation project, which holds the inde- pendent intellectual property rights in western areas,of indirect coal liquefaction by orthogonal intersectional experiment. The finding is that the degree of influence on the projectstoption value is sorted in a descending order as below： petroleum price fluctuation, followed by discount rate of net president value, investment changes of construction and coal price undulation. This finding is testified by single--factor analysis, the multi--factors analysis, however, answers the reality better,so it is more reasonable by comparison.