危险品道路运输定量风险分析研究

Study on the Quantitative Risk Analysis of Hazmat Road Transport

危险品风险分析是制定一切危险品运输决策的主要依据,风险分析模型的准确性及实用性直接决定了危险品运输管理的水平。在总结国内外危险品运输风险分析的研究成果的基础上,提出适合我国国情的危险品运输定量分析模型,在模型中首次将非交通事故和黑点导致的风险纳入模型,并利用TransCAD将模型应用于实际路网的风险分析。

risk analysis is the basis of all Hazmat transport routing decisions made,the accuracy and practicability of the risk analysis models decides the level of Hazmat transportation management.We put forward the quantitative risk analysis models which adapt to be used in china basis on summarizing the current risk analysis models,and we consider the risks of un-traffic accidents and black spots,the proposed models are experimented on real road network.