中国药品价格和数量指数及偏倚的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Price Index,Quantity Index and Gerschenkron Effect in China

本文利用我国三个城市样本医院的招标采购数据,测算了2002～2005年抗生素类和循环系统药品价格和数量水平的变化趋势,并检验了Gerschenkron效应。结果显示,我国城市间的医疗模式具有较大差异,北京市使用品种比较集中,佛山市比较分散;抗生素类药品价格下降,循环系统类药品价格上升;4年间药品数量上升了许多倍。尤其是北京市,抗生素类上升了4倍多,循环系统类上升了9倍多,表明药品使用数量的增长是药品费用增长的主要贡献者。另外2004年和2005年我国药品价格和数量之间存在正相关关系,这是不符合市场正常供求状态的一种现象,说明我国药品价格决策机制中存在的某些力量干扰了正常的市场机制发挥作用,扭曲了市场的供求状况。

The paper calculated price index and quantity index of antibiotic drugs and circulation drugs for 2002-2005 using bidding data from hospital samples of 3 cities in China. Also, the Gerschenkron effect was inspected by the paper. The results showed that there were big difference in drug using pattern among different cities, which was Beijing market had few drugs and Foshan had more drugs; the price level of antibiotic drugs decreased and the price level of circulation drugs increased; quantity index showed that during 4 years quantity increased abnormality. Specially, the quantity of antibiotic drugs increased 4 times and circulation drugs increased 9 times in Beijng. This indicated that the main contribution of drug expenditure was drug quantity. There were positive correlation between drug price and quantity in China. This was not accord with demand theory, indicated that certain strengths distorted market supply and demand.