2011-2012年中国宏观经济预测与分析

China's Economic Outlook in 2011-2012:Forecast and Analysis

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组基于最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据调整并估计CQMM,预测2011年和2012年中国宏观经济运行趋势。预测结果表明,2011年GDP可能增长10.13%,2012年,GDP增长率可能回落至9.45%;2011年CPI预计将达到5.4%,2012年还将维持在4.55%的水平。课题组就通货膨胀对城乡不同收入群体收入的影响,以及人民币升值对抑制通货膨胀的有效性进行政策模拟。结果显示,CPI上涨对农村居民的冲击大于城镇居民,对低收入群体的冲击大于高收入群体;而人民币升值不是降低通货膨胀的有效方法。因此,要实现将通货膨胀控制在4%的政策目标,就必须坚决地将经济增长速度控制在9%左右。人民币升值不宜过快,应保持相对稳定的汇率政策。此外,必须采取有力措施保障低收入阶层的收入增长。

The project team of ＂China＇s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂ adjusts and estimates CQMM according to China＇s quarterly macroeconomic data published by the State Statistics Bureau at the end of January 2011 and forecasts China＇s major macroeconomic trend of development in 2011 and 2012.GDP growth in 2011 is likely to increase by 10.13% but it is likely to fall back to 9.45% in 2012.CPI in 2011 is forecasted to exceed the expected inflation figure reaching 5.4% and it will remain at 4.55% throughout 2012.Our team also conducts a policy simulation to identify the impact of current inflation on the income and consumer behavior of different income groups in urban and rural areas and the effectiveness of RMB a p preciation to control inflation.It is found that CPI growth has a stronger impact on country dwellers than on city/town dwellers;that its impact on low income groups is far stronger than that on high income groups;and that RMB appreciation is not an ef f ective way of reducing inflation.It is suggested according to the results from the forecast modeling based on CQMM that in order to control inflation at 4% it is imperative that our economic growth be controlled at about 9%;that RMB should not appreciate too rapidly and its exchange rate should remain relatively stable.It is also suggested that particular attention be paid to the impact of inflation on different income groups,and that effective measures be taken to guarantee income growth for low incom e groups.